BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 12 DRAFKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card at Greenville, South Carolina. DraftKings has some adequate contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There'll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to receive my 3rd seat this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $30k prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Main Event STACK — Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung
For me personally, this is an easy pile in money week. I believe we readily have a floor of 100 with Renato Moicano and The Korean Zombie with upside of ~150. It also assures us the winner. As I have mentioned several times in the past, we don't want 6 wins in money games, so play those type of games safer and all you've got to do is beat half the field. Normally 4 wins or 400+ points is good enough to money in most cash games. Even if you've got a solid lean on this fight I recommend stacking.
GPP play of the week — Jairzinho Rozenstruik — $9,000
Rozenstruik gets the greatest ITD line on the card at -140 and he can easily hit 100+ DK points by obtaining that in around 1. The worry here would be him being on his back in round 1 and scoring zero points during that and then going out and getting a KO in round two. Or no KO at all. Both of these would take him away the optimal lineup so we need this struggle to keep standing and ideally an early KO. I believe that is extremely possible and he'll be a core GPP drama of mine . He is not the greatest cash game play though because he could be placed on his back and be stuck there and possibly even lose the fight like that. I'm OK with him in cash, but I won't be making a priority like I will being obese in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Anderson Dos Santos — $7,900
This gambling line is all about pickem' having a small lean towards Dos Santos. But, Ewell is your preferred on DraftKings and is $400 greater than ADS. Ewell is also the striker so for him to score highly he's likely going to want a finish. His weakness is Anderson Dos Santos' strength however. Ewell has difficulty staying off his spine and when ADS can place him there he could possibly submit him. Or he could rack up numerous takedowns to get a high decision rating. I like the value we're getting on him $7.9k and that I like he should be looking to grapple in this fight. That's why I had to select him as my puppy of this week.
Fade of the week — Syuri Kondo $8,000
There aren't any real easy fades this week. I do have a complete fade on Kondo however because she seems to be purely a striker and I believe Ashely Yoder's best path to victory is by way of grappling. If Kondo is not at a striking match for 15-minutes I really don't see how she scores highly unless she receives a finish. I don't believe she has KO power, therefore I think it's purely the significant strikes and the triumph bonus that we would be relying here. I'd rather have a fighter with a chance to complete or who is more inclined to grapple. That is why Kondo is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You'd like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you'll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 81-51 for +251.89u (+$25,189) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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